The Survival Report - March 2006
There are increasing signs of stress in the economy. Our view is that the odds of a recession are high starting sometime in the 4^th quarter of 2006 or first half of 2007. This issue takes a look at some of the indicators that are signaling caution: a shrinking labor force, the personal savings rate, tightening yield curve, 10 year treasury yields, a slowdown in housing activity, and a slowdown in consumer credit. Also presented in this issue is a look at the stock market and select commodities from a technical perspective.